.New Poll Shows Kaplan With 15-Point Lead Over Quan, Schaaf Is a Close Third

A new poll released today shows that Oakland City Councilmember Rebecca Kaplan leads Mayor Jean Quan by fifteen percentage points — 57.5 percent to 42.5 percent — in a ranked choice voting scenario. The poll also shows Councilmember Libby Schaaf in a close third place. Before being eliminated in the final round of ranked choice tabulations, Schaaf trails Quan by just two percentage points, 31 percent to 29 percent. About 39 percent of voters said they were still undecided — so their responses were not tabulated.

The poll was commissioned by Oakland developer Phil Tagami and was conducted by the polling firm Franklin, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates. The poll was of 1,024 likely voters in Oakland and has a margin of error of 3.7 percent. The poll included voters with landline and cellphones.

In ranked choice voting, voters select their top three candidates, and Kaplan received the most votes in each category. She garnered 15 percent of first place votes, followed by Quan with 13 percent and Schaaf with 10 percent.

In the ranked choice voting scenario, which include the tabulation of second and third-place votes, San Francisco State University professor Joe Tuman comes in fourth place, followed by civil rights attorney Dan Siegel in fifth, and Port Commissioner Bryan Parker in sixth.

The poll also showed former TV anchorwoman Dana King leading in the city council District Two race over Peralta Colleges Trustee Abel Guillen, 55 percent to 45 percent in ranked choice voting. In council District Four, Jill Broadhurst, the head of a landlords group, leads school board member Anne Campbell Washington, 60 percent to 36 percent in ranked choice voting. And in District Six, Councilmember Desley Brooks leads in the ranked-choice vote over challenger Michael Johnson, 64 percent to 19 percent.

All three races, however, have high numbers of undecided voters.

Correction: The original version of this post got Michael Johnson’s first name wrong.


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