Quan Probably Was Leading the Entire Time, And She Has To Be the Odds-On Favorite

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Statistically, Councilwoman Jean Quan will be tough to beat in the Oakland mayor’s race. For either Don Perata or Rebecca Kaplan to move past her in the ranked-choice tabulations, then the ballots yet to be counted will have to be much different from those that have already been recorded. Such an occurrence may be possible, particularly because we don’t know what parts of the city the late ballots came from. But it’s not likely.

Here’s why: